1. The market on one page
In short: prices are down roughly 30% from the 2021 peak, transaction volume has stabilised after rate-cut expectations and the removal of cooling measures, but there is still a visible gap between asking prices and bank valuations. That gap is where a buyer's negotiating room comes from.
The market has shifted from seller-set pricing to transaction-set pricing. In the same block of the same estate, two similar units can trade more than 10% apart per square foot — usually depending on whether the buyer used transaction evidence to counter.
| Indicator | Where it stands | What it means for you |
|---|---|---|
| Price index | ~30% below the 2021 peak | Lower entry point, but downside remains |
| Residential volume | Off the bottom, below long-run average | Moderate liquidity; motivated sellers concede |
| Mortgage rates | Off their highs, above 2021 levels | Payment capacity drives affordability |
| Negative equity | Still elevated | Some owners cannot cut price — pick targets |
| Asking vs valuation | Commonly 5%–15% apart | The main source of negotiating room |
2. The price index: how far, how long
The Rating and Valuation Department's private domestic price index is the authoritative measure. It is compiled from actual transactions and lags by one to two months, so it describes last month's deals, not today's asking prices.
What matters is not the level but three questions: is the decline narrowing, are small and large units moving together, and does the index match actual deals in your target estate? A flat citywide index does not mean your estate has no room.
3. Transaction volume and liquidity
Monthly Land Registry sale and purchase agreement registrations are the fastest read on liquidity. When volume recovers, owners hold firm; when it contracts, the share of owners willing to cut rises.
For a buyer, volume is really a measure of how many alternatives you have. Twenty listings in one estate puts you in a far stronger position than three. That is exactly why every estate page on this site shows current sale and rental listing counts.
4. Mortgages and negative equity
The HKMA's residential mortgage survey covers application counts, new approvals and delinquency; the negative-equity series shows how many owners owe more than the flat is worth. Owners in negative equity generally cannot cut their price, because they must fund the shortfall in cash.
So 'the owner is desperate' is not the same as 'the owner can discount'. Before negotiating, assess capacity to concede: holding period, original LTV, and whether they have already committed to a replacement purchase.
5. First-hand versus second-hand supply
Developer inventory and new launches set the ceiling for second-hand pricing. When a launch prices at or below nearby second-hand levels, second-hand owners have to follow.
Conversely, when a launch clears at a premium, second-hand owners raise asking prices — but achieved prices often do not follow. In that environment, the register of transactions is worth more than any advertisement.
6. What it means for buyers
Counter with transacted prices, not asking prices. Deals in the same block over the last three months are the only persuasive evidence.
Get a bank valuation before you bid. A valuation shortfall is the leading cause of forfeited deposits and the strongest argument for a lower price.
Target owners who can actually concede. Long holding periods, low original LTV and an already-completed onward purchase all signal room.
Quantify the outcome. In a soft market, 5%–8% is a common negotiated saving — HK$400,000 to HK$640,000 on an HK$8M flat.
7. An honest answer on 'when is the bottom'
Nobody knows. Anyone claiming to know the bottom is selling something. What you can control is the price you pay and your cash-flow safety margin.
Our position is simple: if you are buying to live in, can service the worst-case rate, and buy below the median transacted price for the area, timing matters far less. Maxing out leverage and betting on refinancing in three years is the real risk.
8. FAQ
Is the Hong Kong property market rising or falling in 2026?+
Prices are roughly 30% below the 2021 peak and have been broadly flat recently. Direction depends on rates, volume and supply; no single forecast should be your only reason to buy.
How much can you negotiate right now?+
In a soft market, 5%–8% is a common successful reduction, with more in distressed or valuation-short cases. The actual figure depends on holding period, original LTV and how many comparable listings exist nearby.
Which indicator matters most?+
The RVD price index for direction, Land Registry volume for liquidity, and HKMA negative-equity data for whether owners can discount. They only make sense read together.
Should I wait for the bottom?+
Nobody can time it. What you can control is buying below the area's median transacted price and ensuring you can service the worst-case rate.
Do new-launch discounts drag second-hand prices down?+
Yes. When developers price at or below nearby second-hand levels, the ceiling for second-hand asking prices drops — a good moment to negotiate.
9. Sources
Sources: Rating and Valuation Department private domestic price indices; Land Registry residential sale and purchase agreement registrations; HKMA Residential Mortgage Survey and negative-equity statistics. Indices and counts are revised periodically; figures here reflect the latest published values at the time of writing.